China ‘may need a rethink’ as Vietnam moves closer to US

Hanoi’s ‘unanticipated’ warmer relations with Washington a concern for Beijing, analysts say

30 May, 2016, Teddy Ng, scmp.com

The stepped-up military ties ­between Vietnam and the United States is a worrying sign to Beijing, even though Hanoi is unlikely to acquire advanced American weapons, analysts say.

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Some added that Beijing had not anticipated Vietnam would strike such a partnership with Washington, and called on Beijing to adjust its posturing in the South China Sea.

Last week, US President Ba­rack Obama lifted a decades-long embargo on lethal arms sales to Hanoi, saying the change would ensure that Vietnam had access to necessary equipment for defence.

“What worries Beijing is the prospect of an increasingly close strategic partnership between the US and Vietnam. The lifting of the arms embargo is a poignant symbol of this – and a sign of just how far US-Vietnam ties have come in recent years,” Ashley Townshend, a research fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, said.

Townshend said Vietnam was unlikely to become a US ally, but Beijing was worried about where the deepening defence ties ­between the two countries – and between other partners and Washington – might lead.

China and Vietnam have ­promoted political and economic connections in recent years, with bilateral trade topping US$60 billion, but ties have soured recently over South China Sea territorial disputes.

Phuong Nguyen, an associate fellow with the Southeast Asia Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said Vietnam was unlikely to turn away from Beijing.

But China would scrutinise how US-Vietnam defence ties ­developed, and might need to think twice when handling the disputes, she said.

“My understanding is that Beijing believed Vietnam would never go the extra mile to the United States because of political and human rights differences,” Nguyen said.

But Hanoi realised it had to ­improve ties with Washington in light of the crisis triggered in 2014 by the deployment of a Chinese oil rig in the disputed waters, which led to massive anti-China protests in Vietnam.

Amid the crisis, Hanoi found that its communication mechanisms with Beijing failed to de-escalate tension.

“Hanoi realises that it cannot tap into any of these mechanisms it has invested so much into building with Beijing,” Nguyen said.

Zhang Mingliang, an expert in Southeast Asian affairs at Jinan University, said concerns over China’s military presence and construction activities on its artificial islands in the South China Sea had pushed Vietnam towards the US, and it was time for Beijing to reassess its approach with its neighbours.

Townshend said Beijing had few options for dealing with Vietnam’s pursuit of closer ties with the US, other than using the prospect of lucrative trade and investment deals as a form of leverage.

But unless Beijing reined in its conduct in the South China Sea, it was unlikely to alter the region’s efforts to side with America to balance China’s influence, he said.

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